Wednesday, October 13, 2021

The Amish response to coronavirus may have contributed to higher death rates from COVID-19 among their communities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Indiana

It appears that the Amish response to coronavirus, which was to resume life as normal after lockdowns in 2020 and among other things share the common cup at Holy Communion at church, may have contributed to higher death rates from COVID-19 in their communities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Indiana. 

Death rates per 100k of population currently exceed overall state rates in 17 Amish counties out of 30 top Amish counties which together form the 10 largest Amish communities in the nation.

The data is from The New York Times at us-covid-tracker.com, pandemic to date as of Oct 11, 2021.

Ohio (197 deaths/100k):

Holmes, putatively the most Amish county in the nation, 273 deaths/100k, which is 38.6% higher than the current overall Ohio rate of 197/100k.
Wayne 224
Coshocton 216
Tuscarawas 316
Stark 279
Trumbull 273
Ashtabula 200
Mercer 224.
 
Indiana (239 deaths/100k):
 
Elkhart 251
Jay 240
Wells 311
Marshall 296
Daviess 342.
 
Illinois (221 deaths/100k):

Moultrie 283
Coles 241.
 
Pennsylvania (235 deaths/100k):
 
Mifflin 403
Huntingdon 332.
 
For 5 Amish counties in Pennsylvania, the current average death rate exceeds the state rate to date by 14%. For 10 Amish counties in Ohio the average death rate exceeds the state rate by 18%. For 3 Amish counties in Illinois the average death rate exceeds the state rate by 12%. And for 12 Amish counties in Indiana the average death rate exceeds the state rate, to date, by just over 1%. Two multi-county Amish communities within Indiana exceed the state death rate to date by an average of 9.2%. One of those Indiana Amish communities abuts Ohio's Mercer County whose death rate exceeds the Ohio death rate to date by 13.7% (included in the Ohio total above).
 
Since the data used here is cumulative, it was not possible to reconstruct the rates at previous points in the past. It is likely that the current rates represent the state of affairs long after the height of the damage was done by the pandemic.
 
More granular data showing specifically Amish deaths would be needed to verify that the deaths were contained within the Amish community. The Amish typically do not participate in government in general, or public education or public health care in particular.